Kyrgyzstan

(CC) Image: George Swan
Centred directly over Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

(PD) Image: CIA
CIA map of Kyrgyzstan.

Kyrgyzstan is a landlocked central Asian nation, formerly part of the USSR, and bordering China, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. There are border disputes with Kazakhstan, Tajikistan; and Uzbekistan. The capital is Bishkek.

Demographics

Its 5 million citizens, with a 1.38% growth rate (2008 est.), are 75 percent Muslim, with 20% of the remainder Russian Orthodox 20%; 5% belong to other religions. Kyrgyz 64.9%, Uzbek 13.8%, Russian 12.5%, Dungan 1.1%, Ukranian 1%, Uigur 1%, other 5.7% (1999 census). The population is 98% literate, with an average 12th grade education/

Economics

On becoming independent, Kyrgyzstan was progressive in carrying out market reforms such as an improved regulatory system and land reform. It ws the first Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) country to be accepted into the World Trade Organization. Much of the government's stock in enterprises has been sold.

Drops in production had been severe after the breakup of the Soviet Union in December 1991, but by mid-1995, production began to recover and exports began to increase.

The economy is heavily weighted toward gold export and a drop in output at the main Kumtor gold mine sparked a 0.5% decline in GDP in 2002 and a 0.6% decline in 2005.

The government made steady strides in controlling its substantial fiscal deficit, nearly closing the gap between revenues and expenditures in 2006, before boosting expenditures more than 20% in 2007-08.

There has been continuing cooperation between the government and international economic organizations, focusing on a comprehensive medium-term poverty reduction and economic growth strategy. In 2005, Bishkek agreed to pursue much-needed tax reform and, in 2006, became eligible for the heavily indebted poor countries (HIPC) initiative.

Progress fighting corruption, further restructuring of domestic industry, and success in attracting foreign investment are keys to future growth. GDP grew more than 6% annually in 2007-08, partly due to higher gold prices internationally, but growth is likely to decline from that level in 2009, due to declining demand and lower commodity prices in the wake of the international financial crisis.

The country has strong potential for hydroelectric power development and export, but this sector has not grown.

Recent history

After independence from the former Soviet Union, President Askar Akaev established an authoritatian government, was defeated by elections in the spring of 2005, won by prime minister Kurmanbek Bakiev. An opposition, under Bakiev, led to 2006 changes in the consitution, which strenghened parliamentary government. The political opposition organized demonstrations in Bishkek in April, May, and November 2006 resulting in the adoption of a new constitution that transferred some of the president's powers to parliament and the government.

An Kyrgyz ambassador to the U.S. recounted, "My people's hopes have receded as our nation has steadily become more authoritarian. Kyrgyzstan may still be the most democratic nation in Central Asia, but the ways in which it differs from its more authoritarian neighbors are steadily being erased. Millions of Kyrgyz dream of a better, more democratic future". U.S. criticism of authoritarianism and encouragement of democracy gave them hope.

In December 2006, the Kyrgyzstani parliament voted to adopt new amendments, restoring some of the presidential powers lost in the November 2006 constitutional change. Since then, economic mismanagement left the country, expected to be a net exporter of electrical power, in a power crisis.

By late-September 2007, both previous versions of the constitution were declared illegal, and the country reverted to the 2003 constitution, which was subsequently modified in a flawed referendum initiated by Bakiev. The president then dissolved parliament, called for early elections, and gained control of the new parliament through his newly-created political party, Ak Jol, in December 2007 elections.

Afghanistan War (2001-)

While Krygyzstan does not directly border Afghanistan, it hosted an important regional facility used by the United States for its Afghan operations, the Manas Air Base. The country recently asked the U.S. to leave, with a final parliamentry vote on February 19.

Mutual interests

According to a past Kyrgyz Ambassador to the United States, his country had many reasons for wanting the base. While sympathy for the 9-11 attacks was a factor, Kyrgyzstan saw common security interests with the U.S.: "Fifty of our uniformed servicemen had been killed from 1999 to 2001 in gun battles with the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (UIM), an organization that formally allied itself with al-Qaeda and that operated out of bases in Afghanistan it maintained with al-Qaeda and Taliban support." U.S. operations against al-Qaida and the Taliban also benefitted Kyrgystan...allied forces dealt the IMU a devastating blow... The U.S. commitment to end those operations corresponded with the national security interests of my country. "Contrary to news reports, he said, the reason for asking the U.S. to leave was not principally due to Russian pressure. Once the air base opened, however, the broad engagement between the two countries came to focus only on the base.

Role in the war

After the 9-11 attacks, the U.S obtained a good deal of regional cooperation for operations in Afghanistan. According to Andrew Hoehn of the RAND Corporation "And at that time, on a fairly urgent basis, relationships were forged with Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan so as to be able to use air facilities, airfields in both countries. It was at Karshi-Kanabad in Uzbekistan and at Manas in Kyrgyzstan." Jason Lyall, of Princeton University, said "It moves about 500 tons of cargo and supplies every month and about 15,000 people transiting through there every month as well. And on the refueling side it is really, really important for aircraft that are flying over Afghanistan both for search and rescue missions, say for downed pilots and things of that nature, as well as for bombing raids." Last year, more than 11,000 aircraft were refueled over the skies of Afghanistan by tankers based at Manas.

Uzbekistan, in 2005, closed Karshi-Kanabad airfield; VOA reported this as due to Russian pressure. VOA, however, reported that Russia certainly played a role in the Kyrgyz base-closing decision.

Economics and tensions

Kyrgyzstan also hoped to benefit economically from the base, a wish that was never hidden, but never really materialized. The local government saw U.S. cooperation on a number of fronts: "security concerns, economic concerns, and advocacy of human rights and democracy. But once the base was established, it became clear that while other concerns might be voiced from time to time, only one thing really mattered: the air base. In the end, this shift served neither country's interests." There were also tensions about a U.S. shooting of a Kyrgyz citizen, with a U.S. response that left the locals concerned about U.S. candor.

Still, economics seem a major factor. Quoting Robert Legvold of Columbia University, "It would appear to be more than a coincidence that the decision was announced to the Americans in Moscow when (Kurmanbek) Bakiyev, the president of Kyrgyzstan, was in Moscow and immediately after he'd received this large package of aid, a $2 billion credit and a $150 million grant. That appears to be more than a coincidence, not the least since we know that the Russians have been urging both the Uzbeks and the Kirghiz to set a deadline by which the Americans should be removed from the base, or by which the outsiders should be pushed out of the central Asian facilities." One of the issues is that Kyrgyzstan wants to raise the lease price to the U.S. to an $17 million, as part of an overall $150 million economic package to Bishkek.

A key question for the U.S. is how much the logistic benefits are worth to the U.S. Michael Williams, of the University of London, said the base has recently become even more important. "Given the fact that the current supply routes run from Pakistan and they come from Karachi, from the sea, all the way up the country into southern and eastern Afghanistan. And given the insecurity, both in the provinces of Pakistan bordering Afghanistan and in southern and eastern Afghanistan, it has been quite difficult ensuring regularity of supplies. NATO has had several convoys attacked. Several hundred NATO vehicles were destroyed in a single ambush a few months ago."

Next moves

Hillary Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State, called the closing "regrettable", "regrettable," Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, but it won't affect the U.S. military effort in nearby Afghanistan. Russia opened a base in Kant, Kyrgyzstan, in 2003. CNN reported that Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, said it would assist the U.S. in transporting nonmilitary cargo to Afghanistan. A Defense Department spokesman, Geoff Morrell said it was "a hugely important air base...It provides us with launching point to provide supplies in Afghanistan. We very much appreciate [Kyrgyz] support in using that base, and we hope to continue." He said there are 18 months in which the lease could be renegotiated, before it expires and hopes Kyrgyzstan will reconsider their position.

President Bakiyev cited the incident of the killing of a Kyrgyz citizen, in 2006, by a U.S. airman. The airman was transferred out of Kyrgyzstan, and the dead man's family was offered compensation. United States Central Command commander GEN David Petraeus said, in January an investigation into the death was being reopened. In announcing the base closure, Bakiyev said he was not satisfied with the inquiry and that his government's "inability to provide security to its citizens" was proving a serious concern.