Recession of 2009/Addendum
Recent economic developments
2008 4th quarter
World markets
The oil price falls. (November US light $60/barrel, down fron July $147 peak)[1].
The United States
US industrial production falls. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's National Activity Index (CFNAI) falls from -1.61 for August to -2.57 for September, mainly on steep fall in industrial production [2].
US consumer confidence falls to its lowest point since first measured in 1967.
US output falls - by 0.3% between second and third quarters of 2008 [3]
US interest rate reduced - a 0.5 percentage point cut in the Federal Reserve Bank's benchmark rate to 1.0%.
US unemployment rate rises to 6.5% - the highest for 14 years.
US consumer prices fall by 1% in October [4]
Europe
The United Kingdom
UK output falls - by 0.5% between second and third quarters of 2008 [5].
Bank of England slashes its discount rate by an unprecedented 1.5 per cent to 3 per cent.
UK Budget stimulus - discretionary public expenditure of 1.1% of GDP [6]
Investment banks cut lending - by over two-thirds between September and October [7]
Other Europeancountries
Crises in Iceland, Hungary and Ukraine - to be tackled by loans from the International Monetary Fund
Asia
Recession in Japan - as output falls by 0.9% and 0.1% in 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2008.
Forecasts and outturns
- Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product
- (forecasts are shown in italics)
Date Source Country 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 02 October 2008 International Monetary Fund [8]. United States 2.0 1.6 0.1 United Kingdom 3.0 1.0 -0.1 France 2.2 0.8 0.2 Japan 2.1 0.7 0.5 China 12 10 9 World 5.0 3.9 3.0 08 October 2008 Conference Board [9] United States 2.0 1.7 0.0 06 November 2008 International Monetary Fund [10]. United States 2.0 1.4 -0.7 Europe 2.6 1.2 -0.5 Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.2 China 12 9.7 8.5 World 5.0 3.7 2.2 08 November 2008 Economist poll [11] United States 2.0 1.4 -0.1 United Kingdom 3.0 0.9 -1.0 France 2.2 0.9 0.0 Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.1 13 November 2008 OECD [12] United States 2.0 1.4 -0.9 1.6 Japan 2.1 0.5 -0.1 0.6 Europe 2.6 1.1 -0.5 1.2
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