Mistakes
Definition
With hindsight, any decision that has unintended consequences may be considered to have been a mistake. It is more useful, however, to define a mistake as a misguided decision, whatever its consequences. The unintended consequence that is to be expected of a misguided decision may be avoided by chance; and chance may result in an unintended consequence that could not have been anticipated. A driver may escape a collision when he crosses a busy junction against a red light. He may also be the victim of someone else who does so - but in that case, his decision to cross the junction legally cannot usefully be considered to have been a mistake, despite its unintended consequence.
Overview
Among the purposes of studies of mistakes has been the discovery of ways of avoiding them. Experimental psychology has revealed the existence of subconscious characteristics of the human brain that are conducive to misguided choices, but it has also revealed the possibility of conscious control over the subconscious. Other studies have explored the effects of organisations, organisational environments and administrative procedures. A number of measures have been adopted or proposed for the avoidance of mistakes.
The causes of mistakes have been categorised as misinformation, the misinterpretation of information, and decision errors.
Misinformation
Misinformation by journalists, politicians and businessmen is widely believed to be commonplace [1]. Misinformation in the form of "creative accounting" is a common feature of company accounts, and it has not been uncommon for the demise of a company to follow closely upon a report of its good health. Outright deception (as reported to have been practised in 2008 by the management of the Lehman Brothers bank in 2008 [2]) has seldom been established, but is widely suspected. The professions are generally believed to be trustworthy, but there have been numerous cases of inadvertent expert error. Cases involving the error known as the prosecutor's fallacy by expert witnesses and lawyers, have resulted in serious miscarriages of justice[3], and there is evidence to suggest that doctors fall victim to an error known as the false positive fallacy when evaluating blood test results[4]. Misinformation in the form of ill-founded forecasts by credit rating agencies has been revealed as one of the causes of the recession of 2008-11[5].
Misinterpretation
Decision error
Avoidance
References
- ↑ Ipsos-Mori Veracity Index 2008
- ↑ Anton Valukas: In re Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc, report to the United States Bankruptcy Court, March 2010
- ↑ Evaluating Legal Evidence, Department of Computor Science, Queen Mary College, University of London, 2009
- ↑ Michael Eysenck and Mark Keane Cognitive Psychology page 567 [1](Google extract)
- ↑ Hearing on the Credit Rating Agencies and the Financial Crisis, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, United States House of Representatives, October 22 2008