Recession of 2009/Tutorials

Selected economic statistics

Growth rates

GDP at constant market prices
% change on previous period

	2006	2007	2008		Q1 07	Q2 07	Q3 07	Q4 04		Q1 08	Q2 08	Q3 08	Q4 08		Q1 09	Q2 09
United States	2.8	2.0	1.1		0.0	1.2	1.6	0.0		0.2	0.7	-0.1	-1.4		-1.6	-0.2
Japan	2.0	2.4	-0.6		1.0	-0.3	0.4	1.0		0.3	-1.2	-0.4	-3.2		-3.3	0.6
Canada	3.1	2.7	0.5		1.0	1.0	0.6	0.2		-0.2	0.1	0.2	0.8		-1.4
United Kingdom	2.8	3.0	0.7		0.8	0.8	0.6	0.9		0.3	0.0	-0.7	-1.6		-2.4	-0.6
Germany	3.0	2.5	1.3		0.4	0.4	0.6	0.3		1.5	-0.5	-0.5	-2.1		-3.8	0.3
France	2.2	2.2	0.8		0.6	0.5	0.7	0.4		0.4	-0.3	0.1	-1.1		-1.2	0.3
Italy	2.0	1.6	-1.0		0.2	0.1	0.2	-0.3		0.3	-0.6	-0.7	-2.1		-2.4

Source: OECD, Main Economic Indicators

Unemployment rates

(ILO definition, seasonally adjusted)

	2007 IV	2008 I	2008 II	2008 III	2008 IV	2009 I	2009 II
United States	4.8	4.9	5.4	6.0	6.9	8.1	8.2
United Kingdom	5.1	5.1	5.4	5.8	6.3	7.1	7.7*
Japan	3.8	3.9	4.0	4.1	4.0	4.5	5.2
Germany	8.0	7.6	7.4	7.2	7.1	7.7	7.6
France	7.8	7.6	7.7	7.8	8.3	8.8	9.4

* May

(Source: OECD)[1]

Fiscal stimulus packages

( % of GDP)

	2008	2009	2010	Total
United States	1.1	2.0	1.8	4.8
United Kingdom	0.2	1.4	-0.1	1.5
Germany	0.0	1.5	2.0	3.4
France	0.0	0.7	0.7	1.3
Japan	0.4	1.4	0.4	2.2
Canada	0.0	1.5	1.3	2.7

(Source: IMF estimates February 2009 [2])

Public Debt

( % of GDP )

	Japan	Italy	France	Germany	United States	United Kingdom	Average
2007	195	107	65	65	62	44	79
2009	217	117	77	80	89	69	101
2010	226	123	84	87	100	82	110
2014	239	132	95	91	112	100	120

average of advanced G20 countries

(Source: The State of Public Finances: A Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor, IMF Staff Position Note SPN/09/, 21July 30 2009, [3])

Leading Indicators

Ratio to trend, amplitude adjusted, per cent
(long-term average = 100)
Growth cycle phases of the CLI are defined as follows: expansion (increase above 100), downturn (decrease above 100), slowdown (decrease below100), recovery (increase below 100).

	Japan	Italy	France	Germany	United States	United Kingdom	China	Russia
January 2009	91.2	96.2	96.3	90.7	91.3	96.3	91.7	88.2
February 2009	90.2	96.3	96.7	90.3	90.9	96.3	92.6	87.0
March 2009	89.4	97.3	97.8	90.2	90.7	96.7	93.4	86.2
April 2009	88.7	98.8	99.0	91.0	91.2	97.5	94.6	86.2
May 2009	89.5	101.1	100.3	93.8	92.7	98.3	96.3	88.2
June 2009	95.5	103.3	101.6	95.5	93.9	99.4	97.1	89.4
Change	↑	↑	↑	↑	↑	↑	↑	↑

Source: OECD Composite leading indicators [4]

Forecasts

Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product

(forecasts are shown in italics)

Date	Source	Country	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
30 March 2009	World Bank [5]	United States	2.0	1.1	-2.4	2.0
		Japan	2.1	-0.7	-5.3	1.3
		Euro area	2.6	0.7	-2.7	0.9
		China	12	9.0	6.5	7.3
		Developing	6.1	5.8	2.2	4.8
		World	3.7	3.1	-0.6	2.9
9 May 2009	Economist Poll [6]	United States			-2.9	1.4
		United Kingdom			-3.7	0.3
		France			-2.9	0.3
		Germany			-5.2	0.3
		Japan			-6.4	0.6
1 June 2009	OECD Economic Outlook [7]	United States		1.1	-2.8	0.9
		United Kingdom		0.7	-4.3	0.0
		France		0.7	-3.0	-0.2
		Germany		1.0	-6.1	0.2
		Japan		-0.6	-6.8	0.7
3 October 2009	International Monetary Fund [8]	United States	2.0	0.8	-2.7	1.5
		United Kingdom	3.0	0.7	-4.4	0.9
		France	2.1	0.3	-2.4	0.9
		Germany	2.5	1.3	-5.3	-0.3
		Japan	2.4	-0.7	-5.4	1.7'
		China	13	9	8.5	9.0
		World	3.8	3.1	-1.1	3.1