Iraq and weapons of mass destruction: Difference between revisions
imported>Howard C. Berkowitz No edit summary |
imported>Howard C. Berkowitz |
||
Line 30: | Line 30: | ||
==UN compliance== | ==UN compliance== | ||
===Nuclear weapons=== | ===Nuclear weapons=== | ||
While Saddam, in spite of declarations of disarmament, hinted at nuclear programs, suspicion focused on two areas of possible Iraqi purchasing | |||
*Lightly processed uranium ore ("yellowcake" [[uranium oxide]]) | |||
*Strong, light and precisely machined aluminum tubes that might become part of isotopic enrichment centrifuges | |||
====The Niger Uranium Forgeries==== | ====The Niger Uranium Forgeries==== | ||
In February 2002, as a result of the discovery of classified documents initially revealed by Italian intelligence in October 2001, the Pentagon sent Marine General [[Carlton W. Fulford, Jr.]] to Niger to investigate the claim that Iraq was attempting to buy [[uranium]] to revamp its nuclear WMD program. That same month, the [[CIA]] sent former Ambassador [[Joseph Wilson IV]] to [[Niger]] in February 2002. General Fulford and Ambassador Wilson interviewed several high-ranking Niger government officials. Neither found any evidence for the sale; Mr. Wilson concluded that the claim was “unequivocally wrong.”<ref>[http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/library/congress/2004_rpt/iraq-wmd-intell_chapter2-b.htm Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq] United States Senate, ordered July 7, 2004. Chapter 2-b. Retrieved May 8, 2008.</ref> | In February 2002, as a result of the discovery of classified documents initially revealed by Italian intelligence in October 2001, the Pentagon sent Marine General [[Carlton W. Fulford, Jr.]] to Niger to investigate the claim that Iraq was attempting to buy [[uranium]] to revamp its nuclear WMD program. That same month, the [[CIA]] sent former Ambassador [[Joseph Wilson IV]] to [[Niger]] in February 2002. General Fulford and Ambassador Wilson interviewed several high-ranking Niger government officials. Neither found any evidence for the sale; Mr. Wilson concluded that the claim was “unequivocally wrong.”<ref>[http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/library/congress/2004_rpt/iraq-wmd-intell_chapter2-b.htm Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq] United States Senate, ordered July 7, 2004. Chapter 2-b. Retrieved May 8, 2008.</ref> | ||
There was disagreement about the findings of Mr. Wilson’s report within the intelligence community. CIA analysts believed the report confirmed reports about an Iraq-Niger uranium deal, partly because Mr. Wilson’s report included a comment that an Iraqi envoy had visited the African country in 1999. However, State Department analysts decided that Niger would be unwilling or incapable of supplying Iraq with any uranium.<ref>[http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/library/congress/2004_rpt/iraq-wmd-intell_chapter2-k.htm Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq ] United States Senate, ordered July 7, 2004. Chapter 2-k. Conclusion 13. Retrieved May 9, 2008.</ref> As a result of these conflicting intelligence analyses, the Bush administration remained suspicious and continued to work from the assumption that Saddam Hussein was actively trying to acquire a nuclear weapon. Because of internal disorganization, the CIA failed to obtain copies of the original classified documents, after they were finally made available to American intelligence in October 2002, and ignored warnings from State Department analysts about problems with the documents. The CIA also failed to check the the president’s 2003 State of the Union for factual errors. Consequently, the address included the infamous “sixteen words” that “the British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.” <ref>[http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/01/20030128-19.html 2003 State of the Union Address], President George W. Bush, January 28, 2003. Retrieved May 8, 2008.</ref><ref>Senate Intelligence Committee Report (see previous note), Chapter 2-k. Conclusions 18-19, 21.</ref> It was not until March 2003 that the [[International Atomic Energy Agency]] (IAEA) revealed with conclusive proof that the documents at the basis of the allegations were forgeries.<ref>[http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/03/07/sprj.irq.un.transcript.elbaradei Transcript of ElBaradei's U.N. presentation], posted at ''CNN''. March 7, 2003. Retrieved May 8, 2008.</ref> However, the British government claimed it had evidence to the same effect independent of these documents, but had promised the source not to reveal its identity. | There was disagreement about the findings of Mr. Wilson’s report within the intelligence community. CIA analysts believed the report confirmed reports about an Iraq-Niger uranium deal, partly because Mr. Wilson’s report included a comment that an Iraqi envoy had visited the African country in 1999. However, State Department analysts decided that Niger would be unwilling or incapable of supplying Iraq with any uranium.<ref>[http://www.globalsecurity.org/intell/library/congress/2004_rpt/iraq-wmd-intell_chapter2-k.htm Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq ] United States Senate, ordered July 7, 2004. Chapter 2-k. Conclusion 13. Retrieved May 9, 2008.</ref> As a result of these conflicting intelligence analyses, the Bush administration remained suspicious and continued to work from the assumption that Saddam Hussein was actively trying to acquire a nuclear weapon. Because of internal disorganization, the CIA failed to obtain copies of the original classified documents, after they were finally made available to American intelligence in October 2002, and ignored warnings from State Department analysts about problems with the documents. The CIA also failed to check the the president’s 2003 State of the Union for factual errors. Consequently, the address included the infamous “sixteen words” that “the British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.” <ref>[http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2003/01/20030128-19.html 2003 State of the Union Address], President George W. Bush, January 28, 2003. Retrieved May 8, 2008.</ref><ref>Senate Intelligence Committee Report (see previous note), Chapter 2-k. Conclusions 18-19, 21.</ref> It was not until March 2003 that the [[International Atomic Energy Agency]] (IAEA) revealed with conclusive proof that the documents at the basis of the allegations were forgeries.<ref>[http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/03/07/sprj.irq.un.transcript.elbaradei Transcript of ElBaradei's U.N. presentation], posted at ''CNN''. March 7, 2003. Retrieved May 8, 2008.</ref> However, the British government claimed it had evidence to the same effect independent of these documents, but had promised the source not to reveal its identity. | ||
==Aluminum tubes== | |||
Cheney, on September 8, 2002, referred to a New York times story about Saddam's attempts to buy thousands of aluminum tubes, as well as other WMD components. <ref name=NYT2002-09-08>{{citation | |||
| date = September 8, 2002 | journal = New York Times | |||
| title = Threats and Responses: The Iraqis; U.S. Says Hussein Intensifies Quest for A-Bomb Parts | |||
| url = http://www.nytimes.com/2002/09/08/world/threats-responses-iraqis-us-says-hussein-intensifies-quest-for-bomb-parts.html?pagewanted=print | |||
| author = Michael Gordon, Judith Miller}}</ref> | |||
===Bush-Blair statement=== | |||
==References== | ==References== | ||
{{reflist|2}} | {{reflist|2}} |
Revision as of 15:48, 2 June 2009
Initial steps
Iran-Iraq War
Both sides used chemical weapons in the [{Iran-Iraq War]].
Osirak
In May 1977 Israeli intelligence determined that the nuclear complex at al-Tuwaitha was growing rapidly and that the reactor facility might soon be ready. The government debated a preemptive military attack. "In the meantime, the Mossad would take steps to buy additional time. These steps included allegedly sabotaging the reactor cores for Osirak before the French could deliver them, as well as assassinating Iraqi nuclear officials. At the same time, the IAF began contingency planning for a strike on Osirak."[1] "In October 1980, the Mossad reported to Begin that the Osirak reactor would be fueled and operational by June 1981
Use internal to Iraq
Gulf War
In my time at CENTCOM, I watched the intelligence, and never - not once - did it say, “He has WMD.”...Now, I’d be the first to say we had to assume he had WMD left over that wasn’t accounted for: artillery rounds, chemical rounds, a SCUD missile or two. But these things, over time, degrade. These things did not present operational or strategic level threats at best. Plus, we were watching Saddam with an army that had caved in. It was nothing like the Gulf War army. It was a shell of its former self. We knew we could go through it quickly. We’d stripped away his air defenses. He was at our mercy. We had air superiority before we even—or actually air supremacy before we would even start an operation. So to say that this threat was imminent or grave and gathering, seemed like a great exaggeration to me.[2]
Aftermath
The United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) was set up to implement the non-nuclear provisions of United States Security Council resolution of 3 April 1991, which called for the elimination of weapons of mass destruction and long-range surface-to-surface missiles, as well as manufacturing capability, under Iraq under the rule of Saddam Hussein. UNSCOM was to work with the International Atomic Energy Agency in inspection and enforcement of the nuclear aspects of WMD, and operate directly in chemical, biological, radiological and missile areas. The United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM) was set up to implement the non-nuclear provisions of United States Security Council resolution of 3 April 1991, which called for the elimination of weapons of mass destruction and long-range surface-to-surface missiles, as well as manufacturing capability, under Iraq under the rule of Saddam Hussein. UNSCOM was to work with the International Atomic Energy Agency in inspection and enforcement of the nuclear aspects of WMD, and operate directly in chemical, biological, radiological and missile areas.
Iraq War
On September 4, 2002, George W. bush called a meeting of eighteen senior U.S. legislators, where they were give a letter saying, in part, "The decision is how to disarm an outlaw regime that continues to possess and develop weapons of mass destruction."[3]
UN compliance
Nuclear weapons
While Saddam, in spite of declarations of disarmament, hinted at nuclear programs, suspicion focused on two areas of possible Iraqi purchasing
- Lightly processed uranium ore ("yellowcake" uranium oxide)
- Strong, light and precisely machined aluminum tubes that might become part of isotopic enrichment centrifuges
The Niger Uranium Forgeries
In February 2002, as a result of the discovery of classified documents initially revealed by Italian intelligence in October 2001, the Pentagon sent Marine General Carlton W. Fulford, Jr. to Niger to investigate the claim that Iraq was attempting to buy uranium to revamp its nuclear WMD program. That same month, the CIA sent former Ambassador Joseph Wilson IV to Niger in February 2002. General Fulford and Ambassador Wilson interviewed several high-ranking Niger government officials. Neither found any evidence for the sale; Mr. Wilson concluded that the claim was “unequivocally wrong.”[4]
There was disagreement about the findings of Mr. Wilson’s report within the intelligence community. CIA analysts believed the report confirmed reports about an Iraq-Niger uranium deal, partly because Mr. Wilson’s report included a comment that an Iraqi envoy had visited the African country in 1999. However, State Department analysts decided that Niger would be unwilling or incapable of supplying Iraq with any uranium.[5] As a result of these conflicting intelligence analyses, the Bush administration remained suspicious and continued to work from the assumption that Saddam Hussein was actively trying to acquire a nuclear weapon. Because of internal disorganization, the CIA failed to obtain copies of the original classified documents, after they were finally made available to American intelligence in October 2002, and ignored warnings from State Department analysts about problems with the documents. The CIA also failed to check the the president’s 2003 State of the Union for factual errors. Consequently, the address included the infamous “sixteen words” that “the British government has learned that Saddam Hussein recently sought significant quantities of uranium from Africa.” [6][7] It was not until March 2003 that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) revealed with conclusive proof that the documents at the basis of the allegations were forgeries.[8] However, the British government claimed it had evidence to the same effect independent of these documents, but had promised the source not to reveal its identity.
Aluminum tubes
Cheney, on September 8, 2002, referred to a New York times story about Saddam's attempts to buy thousands of aluminum tubes, as well as other WMD components. [9]
Bush-Blair statement
References
- ↑ Whitney Raas and Austin Long (pril 2006), “Osirak Redux? Assessing Israeli Capabilities to Destroy Iranian Nuclear Facilities”, Security Studies Program, Massachussetts Insitute of Technology Working Paper
- ↑ "Transcript, April 2, 2006: John McCain, Tony Zinni", Meet the Press, NBC News, April 2, 2006
- ↑ Michael Isikoff, David Corn (2006), HUBRIS: the Inside Story of Spin, Scandal and the Selling of the Iraq War, Crown/Random house, ISBN 0307346811, pp. 21-22}}
- ↑ Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq United States Senate, ordered July 7, 2004. Chapter 2-b. Retrieved May 8, 2008.
- ↑ Report on the U.S. Intelligence Community's Prewar Intelligence Assessments on Iraq United States Senate, ordered July 7, 2004. Chapter 2-k. Conclusion 13. Retrieved May 9, 2008.
- ↑ 2003 State of the Union Address, President George W. Bush, January 28, 2003. Retrieved May 8, 2008.
- ↑ Senate Intelligence Committee Report (see previous note), Chapter 2-k. Conclusions 18-19, 21.
- ↑ Transcript of ElBaradei's U.N. presentation, posted at CNN. March 7, 2003. Retrieved May 8, 2008.
- ↑ Michael Gordon, Judith Miller (September 8, 2002), "Threats and Responses: The Iraqis; U.S. Says Hussein Intensifies Quest for A-Bomb Parts", New York Times