2008 United States presidential election

The United States will have its 55th quadrennial presidential election on November 4, 2008. The leading Democratic contender for the nomination at the moment is Senator Hillary Clinton, trailed by Senator Barack Obama and former Senator John Edwards, and several also-rans. Among the Republicans there is currently a three-way race between John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, and Mike Huckabee, trailed by Fred Thompson, and Ron Paul. Each party will officially name its ticket at its national convention in August; the great majority of delegates will be selected in February and March. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has been coy about the possibility of becoming a third-party candidate; as a billionaire he could presumably finance his own campaign.

This election will choose the 44th President of the United States and the 47th Vice President of the United States. Since President George W. Bush has served two terms already, he is ineligible to serve another term as president. Following the re-election of Bush in 2004, Vice President Dick Cheney denied any interest in running for president, quoting General William Tecumseh Sherman's famous statement "If nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve."

Background

A narrow victory in the 2004 elections handed Republicans control of both houses as well as the presidency, but with Bush ineligible to run, Vice President Dick Cheney announced he would not be a candidate. The Bush administration has not put forward its own candidate and remains neutral in the GOP contest.

After a close and highly-disputed loss of the Gore/Lieberman ticket in 2000, and a loss of the popular vote by three million in 2004, the Democrats were pessimistic about 2008. However, bad news from Iraq and Hurricane Katrina, as well as ethics scandals, undermined the popularity of the Bush administration. The Democrats made a dramatic comeback in the 2006 elections, capturing both houses of Congress. They opposed Bush's war policy, but were unable to change it or to pass major domestic legislation, leading to frustration among Democrats and a growing hostility toward all Washington politicians.

Polls

Polls in early 2008 show a competitive November election, between top Democratic candidates (in poll standings) Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama vs. leading Republicans John McCain, Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee. In the Democratic race, throughout 2007 Clinton had a wide lead over Obama and Edwards. Obama scored a surprise win in the Jan 3, Iowa caucuses, 9 points ahead of Edwards, who was slightly ahead of Clinton. Polls show Obama defeating Clinton by ten points in the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary, but she stunned the political world by beating Obama 39%-36%, with Edwards trailing behing at 17%.

The Republican primary shows a contest in turmoil, which may indicate the splintering of the Reagan coalition of social conservatives, the religious right, national-defense hawks, and advocates of low taxes. McCain started with a large lead but collapsed in the spring, because of grass roots opposition to his liberal stance on immigration, and bad financial strategy that left the campaign broke. But McCain soldiered on, making a comeback in early January, 2008, and winning the New Hampshire primary by 37%-32% for Romney. Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York, used his heroic image from the 9-11 Attack, and promise of a strong counter-terrorism policy, to vault to the lead in mid-2007, despite moderate social policies that the large conservative wing disliked. In early December, however, his negatives were catching up and he fell from the 30% to the 20% level nationally, and ran a weak fouth in New Hampshire at 9%. His strategy involvess a comeback in the Florida primary. Hollywood actor and former senator Fred Thompson entered the race late, but appealed to many conservatives looking for another Ronald Reagan. His ineffective campaign style led to a steady erosion of support; he polled 1% in New Hampshire. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, by reversing previous moderate positions, suddenly became a hard-line conservative spokesman. His Mormon religion, however, caused distrust among the religious conservatives who bulk large in some primaries. Romney's strategy was to pour millions of dollars (much of it his personal money) into Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping that victories there on January 3 and 8, 2008, would generate massive favorable publicity. That publicity supposedly would propel him into a dominant position in the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5, 2008, when 45% of the delegates will be chosen. Every prediction and game plan was shattered in November, when Mike Huckabee, a little known former governor of Arkansas, shot to the top of the polls. Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, made a strong appeal to the religious conservatives. Years as a TV announcer gave him a polished yet informal campaign persona that no other candidate could match. Outspent by Romney 10-1, Huckabee nevertheless scored a major upset in the Iowa caucuses, coming in first and beating Romney by 9 points. Huckabee came in third in New Hampshire at 11%. Analysts concluded Romney had to win in New Hampshire to remain viable, but he was defeated by McCain 37-32%; Romny promised to fight on.

Democrats showed much greater enthusiasm for their candidates, turning out in far larger and more enthusiastic rallies, and numbering far more supporters in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, even though the parties were about evenly balanced in both states in 2000 and 2004. As 2008 opened the Democratic candidates have so far raised $223 million, compared with $152 million for Republican candidates.

Iowa

The Zogby poll taken December 26-29, 2007, showed Clinton at 31%, ahead of Obama (27%) and Edwards (24%). She does well among voters over 50, liberals, and both the lowest and highest income groups. Her supporters are more strongly committed to her (76% say they are ‘very strong’), compared Edwards (67%) and Obama (57%). Obama holds huge leads among voters under 35, especially the youngest voters. He also does best among those who are "very liberal" and those earning lower middle income ($35,000-$50,000). Edwards does best among men, those earning $75,000-$100,000, and 30-49 year olds. But Edwards is the leader among second choice voters with 30% to Obama's 25%,and Clinton's 12%.

The GOP race shows Huckabee at 29% and Romney at 28%, trailed by McCain at 11%. Huckabee leads among 30-64 year olds, among "very conservative" Republicans, those earning $50,000-$100,000, and Born Again Christians. Romney leads among Independents, both the youngest and oldest voters, moderates, and the lowest and highest income groups. John McCain is in third place by virtue of doing well (though not leading) among voters over 55 (especially over 65), and moderates.

Issues

Iraq

For Democrats the central issue is the the depth of opposition to Bush's Iraq War; Republicans generally support Bush on Iraq. As of November 2007, polls on average show that over 60% of Americans believe that the war is not going well, and a central part of the 2008 campaigns have been each candidates' strategy to stabilize Iraq and set the stage for withdrawal for Iraq. Most Democratic candidates have stated that a withdrawal of troops is necessary to reduce the risk of further casualties of U.S. troops in Iraq, and will also help Iraqi forces become self-sufficient. Some Democratic candidates have stated that continuing U.S presence has abetted the rise of Al-Qaeda in Iraq with Senator Joe Biden stating "We must get our soldiers out of this civil war where they become justification for the Bush-fulfilling prophecy of Al-Qaeda in Iraq to flourish..."

On the contrary, almost every candidate for the GOP nomination has supported President Bush's call for an extended presence in Iraq, stating that the troops should be allowed to finish their assignment and that an early withdrawal could precipitate a breakdown of Iraq's parliamentary government, allowing it to fall to influence from Iran or Al-Qaeda. An exception to this has been Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, who was the Libertarian Party's presidential nominee in 1988, who has consistently advocated for a non-interventionist foreign policy and a withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

Immigration

A central issue for Republicans (but not Democrats) is the status of illegal immigrants, with a grass roots nativism hurting Giuliani. Debate goes on in the Republican party as to whether or not illegal immigrants should be granted a path to citizenship, although all candidates have stated their opposition towards businesses hiring them in America. Among the Democratic field, all candidates have stated a desire to allow a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, though each candidates' plans differ. Some have stated their support for a crackdown on businesses hiring undocumented workers.

Mechanics

The campaign will have three stages. In January, come the preliminaries, with attention focused on the Iowa caucus (Jan. 3) and the New Hampshire primary (Jan 8), along with contests in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. Then comes Super Tuesday Feb 5, with 40% of the delegates chosen. After that a string of primaries will be held, which will become increasingly important if the GOP race becomes deadlocked on Feb. 5. With Clinton holding a nearly 2-1 national lead over Obama, experts had expected her to clinch the nomination in February. However Obama has gained momentum and defeated Clinton and Edwards by 9 points in the Iowa caucus, giving him the much-prozed "momentum" heading into New Hampshire. The GOP nominee may be undecided until the national convention in August.

The rules differ in every state. Most states use primaries which are ordinary elections. Some are open only to party members; in other like New Hampshire, registered independents can vote in one or the other party primary. In most states, the delegates have to be won in each congressional district, though there are a few states with winner-take-all statewide. The caucuses are a leftover from 19th century. In Iowa voters to go to a local school or meeting place to spend an hour or two in a "caucus" to register their preference. Supporters of candidates with under 15% at that caucus move to another candidate. The caucus is a mixture of discussion, debating, a little horse-trading, and some consensus-building between neighbors. Anything can happen, but the media will report on the distribution of support at the end of the evening. (The actual national delegates in Iowa will be chosen months later, and are so few they do not much matter.)

Third parties choose their candidates at their own, smaller conventions that receive little coverage.

Candidates for the Democratic nomination

Top tier

• Hillary Clinton - Former First Lady (1993-2001) and Senator from New York since 2001
• John Edwards - Former Senator from South Carolina (1998-2004) and Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in 2004
• Barack Obama - Senator from Illinois since 2004

Second tier

• Mike Gravel - Former Senator from Alaska (1969-1981)
• Dennis Kucinich - Congressman from Ohio
• Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico since 2003, Secretary of Energy from 1997-2001, Ambassador to the United Nations from 1997-1998

Withdrawn candidates

• Joe Biden - Senator from Delaware since 1973, head of Senate Foreign Relations Committee
• Christopher Dodd - Senator from Connecticut since 1981
• Tom Vilsack - Governor of Iowa 1999-2007, endorsed Clinton

Candidates for the Republican nomination

Active candidates

• Rudy Giuliani - Mayor of New York City 1994-2001
• Mike Huckabee - Governor of Arkansas 1996-2007
• John McCain - Senator from Arizona 1987-present, 2000 candidate for Republican nomination
• Ron Paul - Congressman from Texas 1997-present, Libertarian Party presidential nominee in 1988
• Mitt Romney - Governor of Massachusetts, 2002-2007
• Fred Thompson - Senator from Tennessee, 1994-2003, television and film actor

Second tier

• Duncan Hunter - Congressman from California, 1981-present

Withdrawn candidates

• Sam Brownback - Senator from Kansas, 1996-present, endorsed McCain
• Jim Gilmore - Governor of Virginia, 1998-2002, currently GOP nominee for 2008 Virginia U.S. Senatorial Election
• Tom Tancredo - Congressman from Colorado, 1999-present; endorsed Romney
• Tommy Thompson - Governor of Wisconsin 1987-2001, Secretary of Health and Human Services 2001-2005; endorsed Giuliani