Recession of 2009/Addendum

Recent economic developments

Autumn 2008

Bank of England slashes its discount rate by an unprecedented 1.5 per cent to 3 per cent.

US industrial production falls. Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's National Activity Index (CFNAI) falls from -1.61 for August to -2.57 for September, mainly on steep fall in industrial production [1].

US consumer confidence falls to its lowest point since first measured in 1967.

US output falls - by 0.3% between second and third quarters of 2008 [2]

US interest rate reduced - a 0.5 percentage point cut in the Federal Reserve Bank's benchmark rate to 1.0%.

Credit crunch eases slightly in late October - after steep rises in September[3] [4].

The oil price falls. (October US light $67/barrel, down fron July $147 peak)[5].

UK output falls - by 0.5% between second and third quarters of 2008 [6].

Crises in Iceland, Hungary and Ukraine - to be tackled by loans from the International Monetary Fund

Forecasts and outturns

Annual percentage growth in Gross Domestic Product

(forecasts are shown in italics)

Date	Source	Country	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
02 October 2008	International Monetary Fund [7].	United States	2.0	1.6	0.1
		United Kingdom	3.0	1.0	-0.1
		France	2.2	0.8	0.2
		Japan	2.1	0.7	0.5
		China	12	10	9
		World	5.0	3.9	3.0
08 October 2008	Conference Board [8]	United States	2.0	1.7	0.0
06 November 2008	International Monetary Fund [9].	United States	2.0	1.6	0.1
		Europe	3.0	1.0	-0.1
		Japan	2.1	0.7	0.5
		China	12	10	9
		World	5.0	3.9	3.0
08 November 2008	Economist poll [10]	United States	2.0	1.4	-0.1
		United Kingdom	3.0	0.9	-1.0
		France	2.2	0.9	0.0
		Japan	2.1	0.5	-0.1